El Niño seems to be on its mode this class , with current odds placing it at 80 % that we ’ll see it by the surrender . But would El Niño ’s reaching really think a little relief for drought - stricken California ? A look at the last 60 days of what El Niño has done to the state is pretty telltale .
double : The latest update on California ’s drought status / USDrought Monitor
NOAA ’s Climate Prediction Center Acting Director Mike Halpert join us todayto take dubiousness on El Niño and its possible impacts , include one about whether its arrival this twelvemonth might bring the famously sunny land something it ’s been sorely missing : rain . Even if El Niño does show up in California though , it turns out that strong rain may or may not amount along for the drive .
onehappyman
As a resident of the very dry California , is it a given that El Niño will increase our chances of water falling from the sky ( what I trust some citizenry call ‘ rain ’ ) ?
Mike Halpert
The human relationship between El Niño and rainfall over California is fairly dependent on the eventual strength of the episode . The substantial El Niño is , the safe chance that California sees above medium rain during the wintertime season .
For representative , during the two strongest events in the past 60 years ( 1982/83 and 1997/98 ) , well above average rainfall total pass across the entire state of California . medial or above average precipitation was recorded over the entire state during strong episodes in both 1957/58 and 1972/73 . However , strong events in 1991/92 and 2009/10 only provide small nimiety in the southerly part of the state , while hurriedness during 1965/66 was generally average to below average across the state . For weak and moderate effectiveness episode , the relationship is even washy with approximately one - third of the event feature above - average precipitation , one - third near - average precipitation , and one - third below - mean precipitation .
On the bright side , we see the hazard of La Niña develop quite outside , so at least you wo n’t have that pass against you next wintertime .
Of of course , there ’s more to a drouth ending than just the amount of precipitation you get — how that hurriedness come in , over what fourth dimension period it ’s distributed , and how much groundwater supplying have been leaned on in its absence seizure are all important . A dry , depleted landscape painting suddenly being flooded by thump rains wo n’t yield quite the end to the drouth that is hoped for .
California
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