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liaison trace is a key scheme for controlling the spread of COVID-19 , but a young bailiwick finds that delays inCOVID-19 testingwill significantly hamper this process .
The study research worker found that even the good contact - tracing strategy — where all contacts of an septic individual are identified and alerted — wo n’t reduce the spread head of the virus if there is a delay of three or more days between when a person shows symptom and when they are test for COVID-19 ( and get run consequence ) .
The findings , which are base on a mathematical model and published today ( June 16 ) in the journalThe Lancet Public Health , underscore the grandness of speedy testing .
" In our model , minimizing testing holdup had the big impact on reduce transmission of the virus ; and examination substructure is therefore the most decisive factor for the success of a contact - tracing system of rules , " Dr. Marc Bonten , aged author of the study and a professor of epidemiology at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands , said in a statement . " This means that as many infective people as possible motive to be tested , and policymakers might see lowering the eligibility threshold for access to examination . "
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Contact tracing has been used for decades by public wellness official to check the spread of infective disease . It involves question people with support infections — in this example , people who try out convinced for COVID-19 — and tracking down their contacts who may have been exposed to the disease . These link are then quarantine to keep further paste of the disease . Contact tracing is considered specially of import asCOVID-19 restrictions are easedand people resume more natural action .
But for contact tracing to be successful , it call for to take down the " basic reproduction number , " also roll in the hay as R0 , or the modal act of multitude who take in the computer virus from a unmarried infected person , below 1 . At that rate , each person will infect less than one other person and the virus will finally die out .
In the new framework , the researcher assumed that without any ascendancy measures , the R0 of COVID-19 is 2.5 ( meaning each infect person transmits the computer virus to an average of 2.5 people ) , and that about 40 % of transmittance pass off before masses show symptom .
The investigator also looked at howmobile app technologiescould meliorate contact tracing , given that such apps allow people to be notified instantly if they have been in inter-group communication with a person who essay overconfident for COVID-19 . The researcher acquire that traditional contact tracing contain at least three day , while contact trace with peregrine app applied science was instant .
The study found that physical distancing alone could reduce R0 from 2.5 to 1.2 , but that contact trace could further reduce R0 to below 1 , allow for that examination and trace of contacts was a speedy appendage .
But traditional touch tracing ( which takes at least three days to carry out ) would keep R0 below 1 only if COVID-19 tests and test results occur on the same sidereal day that a individual explicate symptom , the fashion model showed .
With the employment of mobile app applied science , there could be a two - twenty-four hours hold in examination and the R0 would still dip below 1 , as foresighted as 80 % of contacts are tracked down .
However , if testing is delay three days or more , even a expert - case scenario in which 100 % of contact are instantly trace would not be enough to wreak R0 below 1 , the author said .
" We get that mobile apps can speed up the process of tracking down people who are potentially infect , but if examination is hold up by three mean solar day or more even these engineering ca n’t stop transmission of the computer virus , " sound out study lead generator Mirjam Kretzschmar , prof of epidemiology at the University of Utrecht .
The study also happen that app - establish technologies were more effectual at turn down R0 than traditional middleman trace even if only 20 % of the population used the apps .
The study had limitations . It did not account for COVID-19 spread in hospitals or nursing habitation ; and it did not calculate for people ’s old age , which could touch how likely a person is to show symptoms or remain asymptomatic .
Overall , " our findings propose that an optimize striking - tracing strategy , with short delays and high coverage for examination and tracing , could substantially subdue the reproduction number , which would allow alleviation of more tight control measures , " the authors concluded .
earlier print on Live Science .
