The First World War was an unprecedented catastrophe that kill billion and set the continent of Europe on the track to further calamity two decades later on . But it did n’t come out of nowhere . With the centennial of the irruption of hostilities coming up in 2014 , Erik Sass will be take care back at the pencil lead - up to the state of war , when seemingly minor moments of friction accumulated until the situation was ready to explode . He ’ll be covering those events 100 years after they occurred . This is the 69th installment in the series .
3 April 2025: Conrad Urges War Against Serbia
On the death of Austro - Hungarian chief of stave Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf ( above ) in 1925 , the Austrian socialist leader Otto Bauer delivered a bitter eulogy : “ If we are listing the five or six men in all of Europe who birth the primary guilt for the outbreak of the war , one of these five or six adult male would be Field Marshal Conrad . ”
Bauer ’s curse was establish in fact . Conrad was an erstwhile - schooltime Austrian German who viewed southerly Slav nationalists as existential opposition of the Dual Monarchy , with Serbia in the Pb . The huge elaboration of Serbian district and population in the First Balkan War alarmed Conrad , who warned the Serbs would now turn to liberating their ethnic kinsman in Austria - Hungary . It was imperative , Conrad said , to break the momentum of Slavic patriotism by crushing Serbia and reducing it to a vassal nation — maybe even take in it . Of course he realized this might fetch state of war with Serbia ’s patron Russia — but he believed Austria - Hungary stood a fair luck as long as it had Germany at its side .
Conrad ’s call for warfare against Serbia became louder and more urgent over the class of the First Balkan War . On January 9 , 1913 he told the alien minister , Count Berchtold , that Austria - Hungary had “ lost its position in the Balkans ” because of the rise of Serbian ability under Russian protective cover , bring that “ Russia must be override , ” and recapitulate the advice in a memorandum ready for Emperor Franz Josef on January 20 . On February 15 , 1913 , he warn the German tribal chief of faculty Helmuth von Moltke that Slavic patriotism was a scourge not only to Austria - Hungary but Germany as well , which would “ in the end penetrate through to the very marrow of Germany . ” At a meeting of the Dual Monarchy ’s ministers on May 2 , 1913 , during the Scutaricrisis , Conrad call for the licking and annexation of Serbia ’s sidekick Montenegro , which would belike lead to war with Serbia as well .
The peacefulresolutionof the Scutari crisis seemed to remove any justification for war against Serbia and Montenegro , but Conrad remained confident the Slavic kingdoms had to be oppress militarily , not just arrest diplomatically — and also see another chance for Austria - Hungary to roleplay in theimpendingSecond Balkan War . On May 20 , 1913 , he wrote to Franz Josef : “ designate once more today would offer us the chance for a solution ; it was not impossible that Serbia and Greece might get involved in a warfare with Bulgaria . Then we must not hesitate to interpose against Serbia . ” In fact , Conrad urge Berchtold to close an confederation with Bulgaria direct against Serbia , taking advantage of Bulgarian anger at Russia ( which fail to protect Bulgarian interests against Serbia and Romania ) to upend the equaliser of power in the Balkans . But Austria - Hungary ’s German ally was skeptical about a Bulgarian dalliance , and Berchtold let the approximation pretermit .
Ironically , Conrad ’s main resister in the disputation over the Dual Monarchy ’s Serbian policy was the Archduke Franz Ferdinand , who wield a great deal of influence as the successor to the throne and inspector general of the armed forces . The archduke made his views known in no uncertain ( and often abrasive ) term : The real recollective - condition threat to Austria - Hungary came not from the small Slavic kingdoms in the Balkans , but rather from Austria - Hungary ’s say ally Italy . While they were technically partners in the Triple Alliance with Germany , it was plebeian knowledge that Italian nationalists loathed Austria - Hungary , which included areas they considered historically Italian in Trentino and Trieste ; although the Italian government tried to conciliate Austria - Hungary , the nationalists wanted to set free theseirredenta(“unredeemed ” areas ) and unite them with Italy . They were also incense by the tyrannical , discriminatory policies Austria - Hungary lead against its restive Italian population .
Franz Ferdinand feel war with Italy was in all likelihood inevitable , and therefore oppose any policy that threatened to distract or weaken Austria - Hungary by sweep up it in conflicts elsewhere — especially in the Balkans , with the attendant risk of confrontation with Russia . And although he originally supported Conrad ’s appointment as chief of stave because they correspond about the Italian threat , the two gentleman’s gentleman soon fell out over the publication of war with Serbia ( typically , Conrad require war against Italy and Serbia ) . As often as Conrad make for up the idea , the archduke would flash it down : After reject Conrad ’s marriage proposal for war with Serbia in a personal conversation on December 14 , 1912 , on March 15 , 1913 he scolded Conrad for note the idea to Franz Josef and ordered him to drop the content . Later , in September 1913 , Berchtold told Conrad his hands were tied , refer Franz Ferdinand ’s opposition to the melodic theme . It is one of the ironies of history that the archduke ’s blackwash by a Bosnian Serb patriot remove the one person who might have been capable to keep Austria - Hungary from declaring war on Serbia .
Great Powers Scheme to Grab Ottoman Territory
While the Great Powers struggled to keep the peace in the Balkans , to the Orient they were all jockeying to lay claim their share of the ailing Ottoman Empire , whose demise they expected at any moment . The main threat came from Russia , whose designs on Constantinople and the Turkish strait were well known , and which was also greedily eyeing Anatolia . Here St. Petersburg was using the Armenians and Kurds as pawns in a deviousgambitto build up its influence there : Essentially , the Russians were arming the Muslim Kurds and boost them to assail the Christian Armenians for have a guise for Russian interference on Christian “ humanitarian ” background , while simultaneously foster Kurdish and Armenian patriotism in the hopes that both grouping would renegade against Turkey — thus clearing the way for Russia to outflank up the Ottoman Empire ’s Kurdish and Armenian territories for itself . The Russians sought to further weaken Ottoman controller by forcing Constantinople to implement decentralizing reforms in eastern Anatolia .
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Of course , Russia ’s designs on Anatolia set off alarms in other European capitals — specially in Berlin , where Germany ’s leadershipfearedthey would get go forth out in a general scuffle for Turkish territory . On May 20 , 1913 , German anxieties were heighten by a report from the German embassador in Constantinople , Baron Hans von Wangenheim , stating that the Russians had succeeded in merge the Kurdish kin group in Ottoman district — no easy feat — as a preamble to a general rebellion . Not coincidentally , the next day diplomats from all the members of Triple Alliance in haste met to discuss how to maximize their gains in a division of the Ottoman Empire ’s district in Asia . Previously , on April 30 , 1913 , Kaiser Wilhelm II vowed that when the Ottoman Empire disintegrate , “ I will take Mesopotamia , Alexandretta , and Mersin ! ” ( referring to two Mediterranean ports in southeastern Turkey ) . Little could he have predicted that the Great War would obtain Germany on the Ottoman Empire ’s side , helping protect Turkish territory against British , French , and Russian imperialists .
